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With a sharp drop in orders from the state, organizations began to focus more on the export markets of cheap low-tech products. The technology of mass production of electronic component base for final household products (microcalculators, clocks, electronic games, radio and television equipment of low and medium quality, etc. ) was mastered.

At the same time, the volumes of real marketable products increased sharply, however, the technological level of production remained virtually frozen, since the total volume of proceeds from exports ( no more than $ 70-80 million per year in sum ) did not allow making any large-scale investments in development production.

The situation was significantly complicated by:

a 6-8-fold decrease in orders of the Russian Ministry of Defense for electronic products;

the lack of state capital investments in the reconstruction and construction of advanced microelectronic production facilities, which did not allow to ensure the timely development of new technological levels of 0. 5-0. 35-0. 25-0. 18 microns. In the same period of time, the foreign electronic industry successfully mastered the levels of 0. 18-0. 13 microns and moved on to mastering the range of 0. 09-0. 065 microns;

no preferences for domestic producers in the domestic market compared to foreign suppliers and a significant tax burden (only in 200 6 g. in the budgets of all levels of industrial organization of the electronics industry have listed more than 3. 5 billion rubles.. );

the reduction in the volume of scientific research, both in research institutes and in the institutes of the Academy of Sciences and in higher schools, disrupted the existing ties between science and production and did not make it possible to introduce new technological processes.

At present, Russia's share in the global electronic component base market is only 0. 23% of the global market volume. In 2005, the global electronics industry produced an electronic component base for the military-industrial complex in the amount of 5. 7%, auto mobile electronics - 9. 1%, consumer electronics - 12. 4%, industrial electronics - 17. 6%, telecommunications - 23. 6%, electronic data processing - 31. 6%. The forecast for the development of the world market for the electronic component base until 2010 shows the following structural changes: the military-industrial complex - 5. 3% (-0. 4%), automotive electronics - 10. 4% (+ 1. 3%), consumer electronics - 13. 1% (+ 0. 7%), industrial electronics - 16. 8% (-0. 8%), telecommunications - 24. 4% (+ 0. 8%), electronic data processing

- 29. 8% ( -1. 8%). The global compound annual growth rate of the electronic component base is expected to be 6% through 2012. Generalized information on the structure of the world market for the main most popular and promising types of electronic

components is given below:

									Table 1
The structure of the world market for the main types of electronic components, billions of dollars ares.

	ECB type

	Microprocessors	31, 227	34. 965	36, 584	39, 748	44, 892	51, 257	57, 299
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Microcontrollers	11, 491	12, 655	13, 124	14, 067	15, 655	17, 632	19, 344
DSP	7. 053	8. 309	9. 1 25	10, 173	11, 660	13, 459	15, 072
ASIC	8. 415	9, 377	10, 188	10, 430	11. 221	12, 561	13, 749
FPGA	3. 19	3. 832	4. 404	4. 808	5. 547	6, 436	7, 218
S o C	24. 020	28, 358	32, 323	34, 350	37, 738	42, 506	46, 258
Display Drivers	5. 472	6. 551	7. 621	8, 396	9. 649	11, 273	12, 713
Analog systems	30, 960	35, 719	38, 830	40, 243	45, 443	52, 200	58, 887
PTO memory	39, 314	46, 237	47. 305	49. 566	59, 336	72, 591	81, 774
Total	161, 142	186, 003	199, 504	211, 781	241, 140	279, 917	312, 243

Significantly weakened the position of the domestic electronics manufacturers in the domestic market - the share of imported ECB is currently 6 0 % of the volume of electronic products sold in Russia.

The structure of the modern domestic market of electronic equipment is determined not only by the needs of the economy and the consumption sphere of the country, but also by the possibilities of production of organizations of the electronic industry and the import of foreign electronic component base and finished products. The capacity of the domestic electronics market in 200 6 g ode estimated at 7. 9 bln. Dollars, of which the products of domestic production is only 3. 5 billion. USD ares.

The most significant segments of the domestic market for electronic equipment are:

- electronic data processing systems ~ $ 2. 0 billion

- telecommunications and communications ~ 1. 7 billion dollars

- consumer electronics ~ $ 1. 1 billion

- special electronics ~ $ 0. 9 billion

-industrial electronics ~ $ 0. 7 billion

- other types of electronics, including automotive, medical, scientific, etc. ~ $ 1. 5 billion

At the same time, the sale of domestically produced electronic components amounted to only $ 439 million (or 37. 5%) out of $ 1. 17 billion of electronic products presented on the domestic market. This is due to a significant technological lag and, as a consequence, the low competitiveness of the domestic EEE.

Currently, the Russian market ECB delivered th tsya products 162 companies electronic complex, as well as products of 24 manufacturers from CIS countries and the CIS.

More than 600 companies from non-CIS countries are active participants in the Russian EEE market.

The main segments of the domestic EEE market by the number of participants among Russian organizations and organizations of the CIS countries were distributed as follows:

• integrated circuits - 52 brands,

• semiconductor devices - 49,

• optoelectronics - 46,

• microwave devices and vacuum devices - 41,

• piezo and acoustoelectronics - 32,

• RLC (resistors, capacitors, transformers, chokes, inductors) - 75,

• materials and structures of electronic equipment - 25.

The volume of sales of microelectronic ECB (integrated circuits and semiconductor devices) in the Russian market in the 200 6 year amounted to 630 million dollars. , Including domestic microelectronics in the amount of $ 40 million. Ares, imported - at 590 million dollars..

Modernization of the domestic economy in the direction of the priority development of high-tech industries will inevitably lead to an increase in the volume of the domestic market for electronic equipment, which, in turn, will require an increase in the volume of domestic electronic components at new technological levels. It is expected that the volume of the domestic EEE market by 2015. should increase by a factor of 2. 0-2. 5. It is obvious that the structure of the electronic equipment market will change in connection with the emergence of new promising and capacious segments, such as radio frequency identification systems, including electronic passports with biometric data, navigation and coordinate support, digital radio and television, etc.

A very important circumstance is that in the coming years new market niches will open up in Russia, which have not yet been occupied by a foreign manufacturer. The presence of such a potential market creates real conditions for the rapid development of electronic production. Below are the features of the development of some market segments.

Ensuring the creation and production of radio frequency identification means

One of the most important areas of application of radio frequency identification is the electronic passport. Work in this direction is currently being actively carried out in the Russian Federation. Estimates show that, with a population of about 150 million,

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switching to an electronic passport would require at least the same number of microcircuits. To this should also be added the annual replenishment of the adult population, the need to replace passports for family and other reasons, as well as the planned renewal of passports once every five years.

Thus, the transfer of passport and visa documents to electronic technology will require a lump sum of about 150 million and then annually for 50 million microcircuits. An additional need is provided by the transfer of driver's licenses, smart cards of payment systems, and mobile SIM cards to the same technology.

Using such technologies, it is possible to produce less complex microcircuits, such as electronic tags for goods and cargo (estimates show that the demand for them in 2007 may reach 250-400 million pieces). Considerable needs for microcircuits will also arise during the formation of the necessary user infrastructure. An expert assessment of this segment of the market for microelectronic products amounts to $ 200-300 million per year.

Modern typical microelectronic production is capable of processing about 240 thousand plates with a diameter of 200 mm per year. You can get about 2000 microcircuits from each plate. The total production capacity will be about 500 million microcircuits per year. Thus, the needs of the domestic market for RFID products can be fully met with just one microelectronic factory.

Of fundamental importance is the decision on the mandatory choice of a domestic developer and manufacturer of microcircuits for an electronic passport. A positive decision on the transfer of this order domestically th electron th organization, on the one hand, will give a new impulse to development of the electronics industry, on the other - will be spent on security, as this will allow preserving the cryptographic core, and will eliminate the possibility of unauthorized access to the composition of information in the VLSI of an electronic passport. The e-passport project should be under government control and should be seen as a major catalyst project for the rise of the microelectronics industry as a whole.

Ensuring the creation and production of means of coordinate-time support

Currently, the main and most accurate means of navigation for various consumers are the global navigation satellite systems GLONASS (Russia) and GPS (USA). The Galileo navigation system is being deployed in Europe. Making decisions on the use of a range of precise coordinate determination expands the possibilities of civilian use of a special satellite system and, accordingly, increases the market volume.

Estimates show that the volume of the Russian navigation equipment market is about 5% of the total world market, which corresponds to about 50 million navigation devices. This provides another 5-7% of the microelectronic production load. When solving this problem, it is necessary to ensure that the domestic manufacturer retains at least 50% of the navigation equipment market. The volume of this market sector for microelectronic equipment will amount to $ 50-70 million per year.

Ensuring the creation and production of digital television technology

In May 2004, by order of the Government of the Russian Federation, a decision was made to introduce the European DVB digital television broadcasting system in the country. This decision makes it possible to count on the widespread use of domestic high-tech equipment when introducing digital broadcasting and to exclude the " capture" of the Russian television market by foreign companies, as happened with the introduction of mobile radio communications.

Estimates show that the volume of the digital television equipment market by 2015 will amount to about $ 25 billion, while today at least 60% of the equipment can be produced by Russian organizations.

It should be borne in mind that an additional need is created by the production of set-top boxes for conventional analog televisions to be able to receive a digital television signal. Considering the large number of analog TV sets in use by the population (at least 80 million devices), this market segment seems to be very significant.

In addition, one should take into account the pay-per-view television system, which uses special schemes to enable pay-per-view. In general, the total volume of the EEE market for this direction will amount to 200-300 million dollars per year.

Participation in the implementation of national projects Ensuring the creation and production of modern medical equipment, including mobile ones.

Almost all modern medical equipment is based on the use of electronics (microprocessor control, sensors and sensors, circuits for generating electrical signals, generating laser and microwave radiation, etc. ). And if measures are not taken to develop the domestic production of this equipment, a significant part of the market will be given to foreign companies.

At present, the total market for medical equipment in Russia is at the level of about $ 1. 5 billion. About $ 1. 0 billion are imported products, and a significant share of imported products are products with the use of modern microelectronics - more than 42%.

One of the priorities in the electronics development strategy should be considered the development and production of miniature electronic medical systems, devices and equipment designed for mobile use.

The average cost of mobile products such as medical electronics, taking into account the purchasing power of the population should not exceed $ 50 ares. The total market volume of this type of equipment is forecasted at the level of 5 million units per year.

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The share of EEE in the cost of such equipment is at least 80%. Thus, the total volume of the EEE market for mobile type a medical equipment may amount to $ 250 million per year.

Considering the high cost of imported medical equipment, one of the ways to reduce the cost of such equipment should be the widespread use of domestic EEE. The share of ECB in the total cost of fixed equipment only comes to 20%, so the total market so th equipment (250 mln. Dollars a year), you can count on selling ECB within 50 mln. USD ares.

In general, the aggregate volume of the ECB market for medical equipment in the future may reach $ 300. 0 million per year.

Modern technologies of education

In the field of education, it is necessary, first of all, to ensure equal access for all students to sources of information of a modern type, built in the form of multimedia products. In this regard, it is necessary to ensure stable high-speed access to network resources throughout the country.

It is advisable to develop wireless multimedia access to training resources by significantly reducing the cost of personal mobile computers in order to bring their prices as close as possible to the purchasing power of the population of the Russian Federation.

This problem can be solved only by organizing mass production of components for the production of these devices and equipment in the territory of the Russian Federation, and the main approach to solving this problem should be a sharp reduction in the number of components in personal and mobile computing devices through the use of systems on a chip and the organization of their mass production in microelectronic industries of a high technological level. In addition, it is necessary to organize on the territory of Russia the mass production of cheap liquid crystal and other monitors (for example, based on the cheap technology of flexible roll-to-roll displays).

The total volume of the market of multimedia devices for the education system, provided that their cost is reduced to the level of 25-50 dollars, can reach 5 million units per year, i. e. 125-250 million dollars per year. The cost of electronic components in the composition of such products is not less than 70%, i. e. cumulative sales of ECB in this segment of the market could reach US $ 90-175 million. ares.

Electronics and affordable housing

In the near future, it is planned to significantly reduce the costs of operating and supplying energy to housing. At the same time, the widespread introduction of solar energy, highly efficient solid-state lighting sources and intelligent control systems for objects in residential premises that optimize energy consumption and ensure constant monitoring of all control items located in the room (" smart home" ) is of great importance.

In addition, it is of great importance to resolve issues related to the provision of the communal infrastructure of the newly built and modernized housing stock, improving the quality, optimizing the use of energy and improving the accounting of the volume of communal services (water supply, electricity supply, heat supply).

Modernization with the use of electronic technology should undergo about 20 million units of the country's housing stock in 10 years. With an average cost of modernization of at least $ 500 per housing unit, the total volume of this market segment could reach $ 1. 0 billion per year.

Electronics and agriculture

In the field of agriculture, electronic technologies should be used to create a production basis for the modernization of agricultural machinery (including the transport component, technological equipment for animal husbandry and primary processing of products, a new engineering and technical base of the industry), wireless sensor networks based on intelligent sensors that monitor the state of the soil, plant crops and livestock movement in animal husbandry, as well as the main technological parameters of production processes are similar to remote monitoring systems in health care, etc.

The use of these technologies in agriculture will provide a sharp reduction in costs due to the rational use of fertilizers, a decrease in the mortality of livestock and poultry, as well as timely warning about the spread of epidemics dangerous to humans among animals.

An expert assessment of this market segment for microelectronic products yields about 350-500 million dollars a year.

• State armaments program

The tactical and technical characteristics of AME are largely determined at the present time by their electronic component.

The volume of consumption of microelectronic components for the needs of the creation and modernization of weapons and military equipment is no more than 20% (compared with the market for commercial microelectronic products), however, it should be expected to increase with the increasing penetration of microelectronics to the level of individual support of a serviceman (communications, control, navigation support, electronic tags, ammunition, etc. ).

The annual circulation of such devices can be several hundred thousand units, the complexity of the electronic component will be close to the VLSI of the " system on a chip" type.

We should expect an expansion of application, primarily for high-precision systems of VVCT microsystems on chips, integrating microelectronics and micromechanics ( MEMS ).

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In addition, a significant increase is expected in the use of fully automated weapons in microminiature design, based on the use of micromechanical systems, the number of which can amount to millions of units.

Thus, the future needs of AMSE systems also lead to the need to organize the mass production of specialized ECB in Russia in volumes to 900 million. Dollars ares.

To meet the current needs of manufacturers of radio-electronic equipment for weapons and military equipment, it is necessary to develop and improve the structure of certification of imported electronic components, suitable for use in weapons and military equipment systems.

Other segments of the consumer market for microelectronic products, such as industrial electronics, power equipment, communications, automotive electronics, security systems, household appliances, trade equipment, etc., can also significantly increase the load of the developed microelectronic production.

Thus, in Russia there is a real possibility and a need to expand modern domestic microelectronic production of electronic components with a total sales volume of 3. 5-4. 5 billion dollars per year, backed up by a guaranteed government procurement market.

Additional opportunities to increase sales of industry products can be provided by conquering foreign market niches.

Since the design capacity of the network design is expected to reach several hundreds of projects a year, and the cost of a single project with a modern technological level is in the range of 10-15 million. D ollarov further only on the design level of exports can be obtained from one and a half billion. USD ares in year.

At the same time, the task should be set to replicate and sell products developed by the design network and produced with the help of foreign industries in the amount of at least 1. 5-3% of the relevant sectors of the world market, that is, $ 3-6 billion per year.

World experience shows that the progress of the electronic industry is initiated in developed countries through the organization and implementation of targeted scientific and technical programs financed on the basis of the joint participation of both the state and private capital in their implementation.

Every year on the development of electric program of the nicks in the world countries to allocate more than 20 bln. Dollars ares

. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the manufacturing firms themselves allocate at least 10% of the funds from the volume of products sold to the implementation of promising research programs for the development of competitive products.

Investments in leading foreign firms exercising is, the development and production of ECB, are shown in Table 2.

table 2

Assessment of investments in 2006, billions of dollars

Company name Investments Leading foreign firms Investments

Intel 5, 5 Micron 1, 45

Samsung 5, 5 Infineon 1. 4

Hynix 3, 2 AMD 1. 4

TSMC 2, 7 STMicroelectronics 1. 25

Toshiba 2, 2 SMIC 1, 2

Sony 1, 7 Texas Instruments 1. 1

Epida 1, 5 Matsushita 1. 0

UMC 1, 5 IM flash 1. 0

To master increasingly expensive technologies, even large manufacturing firms are not able to use only their own funds, so they are forced to create technological alliances and consolidate their funds with the state. For this purpose, in the United States, the S EMATECH Consortium of Government and Private Companies was created, which successfully ensured that the United States was lagging behind Japan in microelectronics technology. In Japan, in turn, with the participation of the state, the SELIT organization was created with the aim of returning the lost priority in the field of microelectronics.

European countries with oyuza perform comprehensive program for the development of new technological levels of micro- and nanotechnology as part of the organizational structure of the program « EP, funded from the EU budget 7"; are implementing a comprehensive MEDIA + program focused on the task - " Europe is becoming a leader in systemic innovation in semiconductor technology, focused on the e-economy. "

China has carried out the state program of development of microelectr to tronics - " Program 909" cost more than $ 10 billion. - and n and worth the time to become some of the largest manufacturers ECB. Newly constructed Chinese microelectronic manufacturing the Features e rizuyutsya 0, 18-0, 13 micron technology level that can meet the challenges of mass production of electronic components for the developing of the present-day instrument- ie alternating the global level.

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