The Bottom Line

2020 NHL playoff preview: Lightning vs. Bruins

By Dom Luszczyszyn 4h ago 20

Oh baby. By goal differential the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning were first and second in the league this season and the two teams were top three in the prior two seasons too. For the past three seasons these two Atlantic Division behemoths have consistently been the class of the league, ranking first (Tampa Bay) and second (Boston) in points with 333 and 319 points. No other team has over 300.

And yet, neither team has a Stanley Cup to show for it. That’s the cruelty of the sport and you know both teams will be hungry to show that this will finally be their year.

This is a clash of the titans, an epic tilt between two division rivals that are arguably the league’s two best teams. This has the potential to be a fantastic viewing experience; high level hockey that’s revered for ages in the same pantheon as Chicago vs. Los Angeles in 2014 or one of the many series between Washington and Pittsburgh.

Unsurprisingly, it’s a tight one where there isn’t much separating either team. For now, Boston has the slightest edge.

Basically, flip a coin for the answer regarding which of the East’s best advances to the conference final. There’s plenty of reason to like either team in this series and it’s why the odds are so close. Tampa Bay has been the best team of the last three seasons, has exceptional depth and has been the stronger team during these playoffs. Boston was the best team this year by a wide margin, arguably have more star power and proved their mettle against a much tougher first-round opponent. It’s splitting hairs.

What does have the potential to create a larger gap between the two clubs is the status of Lightning captain Steven Stamkos. His injury situation remains murky and though the Lightning didn’t need him to dispatch Columbus, beating a team as strong as the Bruins will be much tougher without his services. The odds above figure Stamkos being ready to play halfway through the series. If he misses the series, the Lightning’s odds drop to 43. 6 percent. If he’s ready for Game 1, Tampa Bay becomes a slight favourite at 51. 2 percent.

Either way, this should be a tightly contested, hard fought series and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the winner go on to the Stanley Cup Final and maybe even win it all. Both teams would be favoured in the next series and likely in the final as well. It’s easy to see why when looking at both team’s full season numbers.

Blue equals good, and there’s a lot of blue across the board from both teams. That’s not surprising given they were arguably the league’s two best teams this season. At 5-on-5, the two clubs finished a mere 0. 3 percentage points apart by goals percentage as the second and third best teams in the league this season. Each team’s success at 5-on-5 is a big part of their overall success and though they skate by on raw talent, each team’s underlying process looked very strong all season with both teams finishing top five by expected goals.

Tampa Bay does have the overall edge because the team is a lot more balanced, finishing close to top five on both offence and defence by actual and expected goals. Boston, meanwhile, looked merely average on offence, earning all its results by way of the league’s best defence. That’ll do against most teams, but against a balanced group like Tampa Bay, Boston’s lack of offensive upside may be the team’s downfall as the Lightning have the defensive ability to stack up just fine against Boston.

While Tampa Bay probably has the edge at even strength, Boston has a pretty decisive special teams advantage in this series, especially if the Lightning once again struggle to draw power plays while staying out of the box themselves. That was a real problem against Columbus and it may rear its head against a team like Boston that plays with an edge and has a great grasp on where the line is in the playoffs. The Lightning have a great power play but the Bruins scored nearly a goal per 60 more there during the season. It’s a similar story on the penalty kill too and it’s there where the Bruins should be able to close the gap considerably to make this an even series.

It may not look that way based on each team’s playoff stats, but those probably need to be taken with a grain of salt for both teams, especially considering how seriously both teams took the round robin. Boston especially slept through the opening three games, but it was clear within a few minutes against Carolina that the Bruins would be able to ramp things up once the games started to matter. The Hurricanes are one of the league’s best possession teams, but the Bruins managed to earn 56 percent of the expected goals share against them in the series, frequently controlling the run of play. The same goes for Tampa Bay, who had 60 percent of the expected goals against Columbus. And that was with both teams playing without one of their best players.

In each series, both teams looked much closer to their usual selves with the exception of their offence. The Lightning are usually an elite finishing team, but had trouble solving Joonas Korpisalo and Columbus’ stingy defence while the Bruins already average offence sputtered a bit against Carolina. Finding goals probably won’t be much easier in this series with the way both teams play defence. That holds true for Tampa Bay’s power play as well, which went scoreless against Columbus for the series. The absence of Stamkos looms large there and Boston continuing Tampa Bay’s man advantage frustrations could be the key to the Bruins winning this series.

The other key will, of course, be Boston’s top line. Every preview featuring Boston always starts with these three so by now you know the drill. David Pastrnak is arguably the league’s best goal scorer and is the focal point of the team’s excellent power play. Patrice Bergeron remains as dependable as ever and is still one of the game’s best two-way centres. Brad Marchand is an elite playmaking winger (he’s sixth in assists over the last three seasons) who does the heavy-lifting carrying the puck up ice. The three work flawlessly together, chemistry that has been built up over the past few years where their individual efforts add up to something collectively extraordinary. When they’re on the ice, they run the ice.

When healthy, the Lightning are one of the few teams that have an answer for it, one they’ve spent some time with for better parts of this season and that’s their own super-line of Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Stamkos. Together the trio put up some numbers that actually rival the Perfection Line’s with a 61. 6 percent expected goals rate with 71 percent of the goals thanks to an insane 6. 2 goals per 60. That last number is very likely not sustainable given the trio played just under 300 minutes, scoring on 16. 8 percent of their shots, but it goes to show that Tampa Bay’s version is dangerous, too. For reference, Boston’s trio had an expected goals percentage of 60. 4 percent and an actual goals rate of 65. 7 percent. Though Tampa Bay’s top line does just as well with Ondrej Palat (61 percent expected goals rate this season, 66 percent during the playoffs), it would still be an extreme disappointment to not see each team’s big three go mano-a-mano in this series. Point and Kucherov have done more than enough to make up for the absence of Stamkos, but for entertainment’s sake, I’m really hoping Stamkos gets healthy very soon. Hockey fans deserve to see this battle.

Point’s first round play is worth highlighting as he’s showing exactly why he should be considered one of the game’s best centres. My model is particularly fond of him, rating him as a borderline top 10 player and his skill set was on display night after night against Columbus. Despite an imposing defensive structure, Point found his way into Columbus’ zone with ease, skating in with control 88 percent of the time while leading the team in zone entries. To be that efficient on that many attempts is seriously impressive and it’s why Tampa Bay was able to tilt the ice so heavily with the top line on the ice, and why Point was able to post four goals and seven points in five games.

While Boston likely carries the top line edge (depending on Stamkos’s health), the rest of the forward corps is decidedly in Tampa Bay’s favour. The Lightning have assembled a very deep roster, highlighted by a third line that was absolutely brilliant against Columbus. With Stamkos out, Yanni Gourde got an opportunity to move back into the top nine, and it doesn’t look like he’ll be relinquishing that role anytime soon with the way he’s played with the team’s two deadline additions, Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. The two wingers have come exactly as advertised, playing with a much-needed edge that gives the Lightning another element to their game. That’s shown up in the numbers too with the trio carrying a heavy territorial advantage, earning a nice 69 percent expected goals rate during the playoffs.

Creating that sizeable advantage will be much tougher against Boston than Columbus, though, as the Bruins look a lot deeper than the Blue Jackets. Charlie Coyle anchors the third line and he remains a playoff ace for the Bruins, earning a 60 percent expected goals rate for the playoffs and 66 percent against Carolina. The latter mark led all Bruins forwards and he found chemistry with Sean Kuraly and Jack Studnicka, giving the team some solid depth on the third line.

While Tampa Bay’s first and third lines are both playing terrific hockey, the team’s second line is really struggling and that puts a damper on what should be a deep top nine. Anthony Cirelli put together a Selke-calibre season this year and that stingy defence has stayed intact during the playoffs, but he and his linemates have really struggled to generate offence. Together, they’re earning just 1. 3 expected goals per 60, converting on even fewer chances and getting outchanced in the process. The trio is allowing just 1. 7 expected goals against per 60 during the playoffs, a very strong number, but is it worth it given the anemic offence? If they’re tasked with shutting down Boston’s top line to free up Point and Kucherov, maybe it’s worth the trade-off, but otherwise I’m not convinced. Stamkos’s presence could really help here, which might just push Tyler Johnson to the fourth line (no way you’re breaking up that third line now). That could create an incredible mismatch as the Bruins’ fourth line isn’t exactly the most adept at even strength.

The same can’t be said for Boston’s second line, which was humming along nicely during the opening round. David Krejci led the team in scoring notching eight points in five games, while Ondrej Kase and Jake DeBrusk both put in serious work on the possession-driving front. Kase has looked excellent so far as a Bruin, delivering the type of performance many in the analytics community expected from him. He’s a nice complement on a line with Krejci, who has struggled to influence shot rates this season but gets a boost playing with Kase. With the Bruins in the offensive zone more thanks to Kase’s efforts, Krejci can really thrive. According to data tracked by Corey Sznajder, Kase led all Bruins in zone entries and was up there for zone exits too. Krejci is generally the primary puck-carrier but Kase gives the team another capable outlet to gain the zone.

On defence, it’s Tampa Bay that has the narrow edge by way of having the best defenseman in the series and stronger overall depth. Victor Hedman was a monster against Columbus, a one-man transition machine moving the puck up ice while eating big minutes. He was everywhere and the Lightning unsurprisingly dominated with him on the ice. It wasn’t a guarantee he would even suit up for the start of the series, but he was a difference-maker the second he stepped onto the ice. For the series he led all Lightning defenders with a 66. 7 percent expected goals rate (only the Lightning third line was ahead of him) thanks to his prolific defensive ability allowing just 1. 2 expected goals against per 60 for the series. A lot of that was due to the fact the Lightning were always in the offensive zone whenever he was on the ice, leading to the team outscoring Columbus 5-1 at 5-on-5 with Hedman on the ice. That he managed that with Zach Bogosian next to him is nothing short of incredible.

Though the top pair was especially strong, every pair did their part for Columbus and none were under a 55 percent expected goals rate for the series. From top to bottom the Lightning are loaded with two-way talent from the back end and it’s why they’re able to supplement the team’s elite offence while also pitching in some strong defence too. It’s a great mix that rates as the best of the remaining teams.

The Bruins are right behind them, though, thanks to their own depth and their twin elite defensemen, Charlie McAvoy and Torey Krug. Both grade out equally, but provide value in completely different avenues. McAvoy is the team’s rock, an elite shutdown defenceman with excellent puck-moving prowess. He’s a puck possession monster that plays textbook defence and has the ability to completely neutralize opposing team’s best forwards. He earned a 56 percent expected goals rate this year despite playing some of the toughest minutes in the league. McAvoy is a big part of Boston’s top ranked defence and carries one of the strongest defensive impacts in the league. Krug is also an excellent puck mover and though he doesn’t provide nearly the same impact at 5-on-5, he delivers the goods on the power play where he’s one of the game’s best quarterbacks. That’s a much easier job with the forward talent Boston possesses, but Krug is still masterful with the man advantage, elevating the play of the players up front.

Where there is reason for concern with Boston’s back end, though, is the play of its captain, 43-year-old Zdeno Chara. At this point of his career, it’s fair to ask whether the elder statesmen still has it in him to go the distance in the playoffs. Only Brandon Carlo had a worse expected goals rate to Chara’s 50. 5 percent this season among Bruins defenders and that’s despite playing a majority of his minutes next to McAvoy. That issue has only become worse in the postseason with the Bruins being out-scored 3-2 with Chara on the ice and carrying a 43 percent expected goals rate, the worst mark on the team among defencemen. That’s not going to cut it on the top pair and his numbers weren’t much better against Carolina.

Fortunately for the Bruins, they may have an internal solution to the problem: Matt Grzelcyk. After McAvoy and Chara struggled in the opening two games of the series against Carolina, Grzelcyk started seeing a lot more time on the top pair. The two posted an absolutely absurd 77 percent expected goals rate in 46 minutes together and though the scoreboard was even at three apiece, the duo’s ability to control the pace of play is very much worth getting excited about. Grezelcyk actually led the team’s defencemen in expected goals percentage this season and though that was often in sheltered minutes, it’s worth seeing what he can do in a bigger role. It’s not like Chara is providing much value there anymore, anyway.

In net, both goalies have much easier jobs in general thanks to their team’s terrific defence, but it’ll be more difficult with the offensive talent in this series. While a lot of people figured Boston would be doomed with Tuukka Rask opting out, the team is in capable hands with Jaroslav Halak at the helm. Over the last two seasons his. 921 save percentage is nearly identical to Rask’s. 920 and he’s saved 12. 4 goals above expected to Rask’s 2. 5. Rask was the better goalie this past season, no question, but Halak is no sieve.

(Scott Audette / NHLI via Getty Images)

He actually grades out higher than perennial Vezina candidate Andrei Vasilevskiy, but that’s probably a data issue more than anything. Vasilevskiy is pretty underrated here, likely as a result of Tampa Bay’s rink bias carrying the largest discrepancy in front of the net compared to other rinks. According to Evolving Hockey, Vasilevskiy has allowed 1. 27 goals above expected over the last three years, but his goals saved above average is plus-33. Tampa Bay genuinely has a strong defence, but that effect is probably overstated, leaving the real answer somewhere in the middle (that credit is still accounted for, it would just wrongly be going to the defencemen in this case). In any sense, he too has a. 920 over the last two seasons, so call it a draw between the two netminders. Halak is pretty underrated, but that’s recently been in a 1B or backup role. It’ll be interesting to see how he fares as The Guy for Boston.

These two teams are about as evenly matched as it gets.

The Bottom Line

This series is the highlight of the second round and may even be the highlight of the playoffs altogether. If both teams play to their potential it might be one of the most high profile tilts of the salary cap era featuring two teams at their absolute peak, both hungry to bring home a championship.

It’s difficult to pick between either side as both teams have a plethora of strengths to choose from (and very few weaknesses), but one thing feels for certain: it should make for a helluva series. Buckle up.

(Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and All-Three Zones Comparison Tool using data from Corey Sznajder)